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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."